Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
